* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDRA EP222015 11/27/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 72 60 49 38 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 72 60 49 38 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 72 60 50 42 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 34 37 39 45 67 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 17 12 7 3 3 0 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 249 247 238 233 236 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.3 27.8 27.4 26.0 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 147 142 138 124 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.5 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 61 61 58 54 43 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 13 9 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -12 -6 8 24 18 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 47 54 74 86 46 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 23 30 23 10 2 5 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 360 304 265 193 128 -60 -227 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 20.2 21.1 22.1 23.0 25.1 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.9 108.6 108.3 108.1 107.9 107.5 107.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 18 26 23 12 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 9 CX,CY: 4/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -8. -12. -16. -19. -21. -22. -23. -24. -25. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -8. -13. -17. -27. -36. -40. -46. -52. -59. -65. -70. -75. -79. -82. -82. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -9. -7. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -4. -7. -12. -12. -15. -19. -22. -22. -22. -21. -19. -17. -16. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -13. -25. -36. -47. -59. -74. -81. -89. -96.-103.-108.-112.-118.-124.-128.-130. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 19.2 108.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP222015 SANDRA 11/27/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.27 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.55 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 54.5 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 320.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.56 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222015 SANDRA 11/27/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##