* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDRA EP222015 11/26/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 103 93 84 62 43 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 112 103 93 84 62 43 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 109 98 86 74 53 35 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 18 22 27 29 38 48 65 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 24 25 12 8 8 -5 -3 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 271 257 248 252 247 245 239 235 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.1 25.8 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 151 148 146 136 123 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -52.4 -53.0 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 6 6 4 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 66 66 62 63 60 57 48 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 22 21 22 18 13 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -1 5 5 16 7 38 37 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 142 143 65 66 75 80 87 56 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 32 35 27 22 32 18 0 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 716 659 606 542 445 255 135 -159 -419 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 16.2 17.1 18.0 18.9 20.7 23.1 25.8 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.1 110.2 110.3 110.2 110.1 109.3 108.1 106.8 105.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 11 14 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 22 21 19 15 13 6 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 10 CX,CY: 1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -9. -18. -27. -36. -42. -46. -49. -49. -50. -51. -53. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -16. -23. -27. -30. -36. -37. -39. -44. -49. -54. -57. -55. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -7. -5. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -3. -6. -13. -29. -33. -33. -33. -31. -28. -26. -23. -21. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -12. -22. -31. -53. -72. -96.-110.-115.-119.-124.-127.-132.-135.-135.-132. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 15.2 110.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP222015 SANDRA 11/26/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.06 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.73 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 46.8 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 336.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 2.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222015 SANDRA 11/26/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##