* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYTWO EP222015 11/24/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 45 50 56 67 75 77 78 74 59 37 24 24 24 21 21 V (KT) LAND 35 39 45 50 56 67 75 77 78 74 59 37 29 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 45 48 56 64 67 64 55 40 26 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 6 2 2 3 2 4 6 17 25 35 46 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -6 -5 -1 8 22 15 11 12 3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 128 172 191 261 218 231 226 294 256 260 259 250 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.2 29.6 29.1 28.4 28.1 27.2 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 156 157 157 158 156 161 156 149 146 136 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -52.6 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 83 81 80 80 77 73 67 62 62 58 50 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 17 18 19 21 23 22 24 24 17 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 43 46 46 50 46 33 21 19 32 27 35 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 55 65 95 112 149 197 158 110 79 59 71 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 1 0 3 4 10 24 25 23 8 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 825 838 865 883 910 902 838 742 581 345 165 60 -186 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.7 12.0 12.9 14.2 15.8 17.7 19.8 21.8 23.6 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.5 105.7 106.9 107.9 108.8 110.1 110.7 110.9 110.6 110.0 108.9 107.6 106.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 10 9 7 7 9 10 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 34 31 33 35 40 24 31 25 15 16 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 46.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 28. 29. 31. 33. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 5. 1. -6. -15. -15. -16. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 4. -11. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 15. 21. 32. 40. 42. 43. 39. 24. 3. -11. -11. -11. -13. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.7 104.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP222015 TWENTYTWO 11/24/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.87 11.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.60 5.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 28.1 to 8.6 0.90 8.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 6.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.90 -10.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.43 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.33 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.65 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 46% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 69% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 56% is 12.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.0% 43.0% 30.6% 21.2% 15.0% 46.4% 68.6% 56.4% Logistic: 8.3% 51.2% 33.0% 16.7% 12.2% 48.1% 81.2% 43.0% Bayesian: 4.9% 51.8% 35.5% 11.5% 1.9% 60.7% 52.7% 62.7% Consensus: 9.1% 48.7% 33.1% 16.5% 9.7% 51.7% 67.5% 54.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222015 TWENTYTWO 11/24/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##