* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RICK EP212015 11/21/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 32 32 30 28 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 32 32 30 28 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 32 31 29 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 11 12 14 20 30 42 41 46 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 0 -2 0 3 4 2 0 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 248 250 248 241 238 218 239 241 249 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.5 27.7 26.9 25.5 24.5 24.0 23.6 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 141 138 140 132 117 106 100 95 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -52.4 -52.6 -53.5 -54.1 -54.5 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 48 48 45 46 46 49 44 41 39 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 13 13 12 11 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 25 22 22 26 28 30 11 3 -7 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 38 32 30 33 31 23 2 -27 -22 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 1 0 1 3 4 4 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 734 745 766 794 830 885 870 849 823 795 761 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.3 17.5 18.2 19.2 20.2 21.0 21.5 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.1 113.0 113.8 114.7 115.5 117.1 118.2 118.9 119.2 119.2 119.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 17 12 10 11 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 14. 14. 14. 12. 11. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. -5. -13. -21. -30. -32. -33. -34. -35. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -12. -21. -32. -42. -45. -47. -50. -52. -55. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.6 112.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212015 RICK 11/21/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.74 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.36 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 28.1 to 8.6 0.29 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 247.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.61 -4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.41 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.12 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.31 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.24 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 17.1% 13.3% 10.1% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 5.9% 4.5% 3.4% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212015 RICK 11/21/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##