* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATE AL122015 11/11/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 62 63 62 57 53 50 43 37 28 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 63 62 63 62 57 53 50 43 37 28 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 64 61 57 53 46 47 50 52 52 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 42 48 43 39 33 29 17 21 40 44 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 12 14 4 4 0 2 6 13 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 270 272 268 260 246 258 228 214 234 245 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.5 24.1 21.3 22.0 16.7 20.1 16.4 13.8 11.7 11.2 10.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 101 104 87 89 73 82 75 73 71 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 95 94 80 79 68 75 72 70 69 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -56.3 -57.1 -58.5 -59.3 -58.7 -58.5 -58.2 -56.3 -53.4 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 65 69 72 70 54 52 56 51 49 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 31 33 32 26 24 24 23 23 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 102 131 166 165 193 192 131 99 135 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 155 117 127 118 98 66 48 46 37 43 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 143 156 147 95 38 -2 -50 -69 9 20 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 881 862 747 700 694 832 1122 1528 1092 601 389 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.6 38.8 40.0 40.7 41.4 42.3 44.1 47.1 50.5 54.2 58.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.2 55.3 52.4 50.4 48.5 44.6 39.2 32.5 25.8 19.2 12.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 32 26 21 16 15 18 25 28 28 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 38 CX,CY: 34/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -15. -20. -25. -30. -34. -37. -40. -44. -45. -47. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -17. -20. -23. -27. -30. -35. -39. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. 25. 21. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 4. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 2. 2. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -19. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. -3. -8. -12. -15. -22. -28. -37. -42. -46. -52. -57. -62. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 37.6 58.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122015 KATE 11/11/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 61.1 41.0 to 7.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.93 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.79 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 98.9 95.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122015 KATE 11/11/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122015 KATE 11/11/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 63 62 63 62 57 53 50 43 37 28 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 63 64 63 58 54 51 44 38 29 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 62 61 56 52 49 42 36 27 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 54 49 45 42 35 29 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT