* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATE AL122015 11/11/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 65 70 71 74 71 63 57 45 34 27 21 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 61 65 70 71 74 71 63 57 45 34 27 21 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 61 63 64 62 53 45 43 44 44 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 37 41 50 51 44 43 32 33 42 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 14 14 9 3 0 2 2 8 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 264 265 270 278 261 261 248 231 228 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 23.5 23.6 23.1 20.4 7.5 12.9 17.8 15.8 12.3 10.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 102 102 98 84 65 67 76 74 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 97 95 91 77 64 65 71 70 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.6 -56.0 -56.2 -57.3 -58.4 -58.1 -57.1 -56.1 -55.3 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 -0.5 1.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 62 62 62 68 64 44 48 55 45 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 18 23 28 29 32 28 24 23 20 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 100 115 141 149 179 163 149 134 114 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 120 145 146 124 101 55 36 28 24 20 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 46 75 171 173 157 56 -8 -26 -27 -27 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 738 771 758 734 656 514 577 827 1162 1514 998 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.2 36.7 38.1 39.5 40.8 42.6 43.6 44.4 46.3 49.2 52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.6 63.8 60.0 56.8 53.6 50.1 47.2 43.0 37.6 31.3 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 34 34 31 28 22 14 13 18 24 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 33 CX,CY: 25/ 21 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -16. -20. -24. -27. -30. -33. -36. -38. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -16. -22. -26. -29. -34. -39. -43. -50. -54. -57. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 22. 19. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 5. 10. 11. 15. 15. 12. 11. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 10. 11. 14. 11. 3. -3. -15. -26. -33. -39. -45. -50. -56. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 35.2 67.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122015 KATE 11/11/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 62.4 41.0 to 7.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.98 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.03 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.79 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 127.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 199.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.70 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 82.9 95.0 to 0.0 0.13 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122015 KATE 11/11/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122015 KATE 11/11/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 4( 6) 5( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 65 70 71 74 71 63 57 45 34 27 21 15 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 63 68 69 72 69 61 55 43 32 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 61 62 65 62 54 48 36 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 54 51 43 37 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT