* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/27/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 39 33 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 39 33 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 41 35 29 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 32 32 29 23 19 15 13 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 16 19 17 11 3 -3 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 265 279 300 317 321 303 317 311 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 24.1 23.8 23.7 23.4 23.7 24.4 24.8 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 105 101 99 94 97 106 111 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.3 -49.8 -49.8 -49.8 -49.9 -50.7 -51.4 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 38 38 33 28 23 21 22 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 17 17 16 13 10 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 30 33 28 7 -40 -69 -68 -56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 -4 -4 -4 -10 -34 -26 -33 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 6 -3 -9 -11 -9 -15 -11 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1864 1811 1675 1578 1481 1481 1651 1886 1735 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.6 27.2 27.5 27.8 27.3 26.3 25.2 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 138.0 136.8 135.6 134.7 133.7 133.3 134.6 136.6 138.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 12 10 9 5 5 9 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 19 CX,CY: 17/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -5. -8. -12. -16. -17. -18. -19. -21. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 3. 1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. -12. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -16. -19. -19. -19. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -8. -6. -5. -2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -18. -25. -37. -46. -52. -53. -56. -59. -63. -66. -70. -73. -76. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 26.0 138.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/27/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.25 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.16 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 51.7 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 356.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 63.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/27/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##