* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/22/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 106 109 111 110 103 95 86 77 69 64 59 55 53 51 50 48 V (KT) LAND 105 106 109 111 110 103 95 86 77 69 64 59 55 53 51 50 48 V (KT) LGEM 105 104 104 102 100 95 88 76 65 56 49 45 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 5 2 5 6 12 15 21 22 21 21 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 0 0 4 8 8 6 9 7 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 156 132 130 210 212 221 233 231 245 268 251 236 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 147 146 146 144 138 136 132 130 127 124 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.1 -51.2 -50.7 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.0 -51.8 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.5 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.5 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 70 65 58 55 51 52 48 49 54 59 52 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 33 32 33 36 35 35 35 34 32 31 29 29 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 85 93 99 100 101 91 83 81 56 36 11 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 135 122 118 87 82 93 108 25 0 -2 34 21 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 5 3 3 2 3 4 9 16 17 11 1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1291 1223 1154 1081 1009 898 848 860 924 1036 1182 1341 1517 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.8 13.3 14.0 14.6 16.1 17.6 19.1 20.5 21.7 23.0 24.2 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 145.3 145.7 146.1 146.5 146.8 147.1 147.0 146.6 146.0 145.1 144.0 142.8 141.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 8 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 24 24 25 25 27 25 17 8 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -14. -21. -27. -33. -37. -40. -42. -43. -44. -46. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 5. -2. -10. -19. -28. -36. -41. -46. -50. -52. -54. -55. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 12.3 145.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/22/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.12 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.79 5.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 28.1 to 8.6 0.66 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 392.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.43 -3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.24 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.93 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.24 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.44 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 24.9% 20.3% 16.2% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 17.9% 29.3% 15.1% 13.5% 4.3% 6.0% 1.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 12.9% 6.5% 5.7% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 15.3% 20.2% 13.7% 11.1% 6.0% 2.0% 0.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/22/15 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##