* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/21/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 123 121 121 119 113 109 108 101 94 88 81 80 77 75 73 70 V (KT) LAND 125 123 121 121 119 113 109 108 101 94 88 81 80 77 75 73 70 V (KT) LGEM 125 121 117 114 112 106 102 97 88 79 71 64 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 3 5 4 9 8 5 11 19 22 21 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -5 -4 0 0 0 6 7 5 3 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 8 173 156 145 138 151 126 197 244 257 266 266 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.3 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.6 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 150 147 146 146 142 138 134 129 128 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.3 -51.8 -51.0 -51.1 -50.5 -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 74 77 73 73 61 53 51 50 49 50 50 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 30 32 33 35 35 36 35 34 34 32 33 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 53 62 73 89 118 105 100 86 84 67 49 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 100 89 89 111 122 103 88 99 104 25 -1 -10 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 3 3 2 1 1 3 1 6 7 11 15 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1610 1518 1426 1342 1257 1102 976 876 832 836 888 999 1109 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.3 11.7 12.3 12.8 14.1 15.5 16.8 18.2 19.6 20.9 22.2 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 142.7 143.5 144.2 144.8 145.3 146.1 146.6 147.0 147.0 146.8 146.4 145.6 144.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 22 25 28 27 27 32 28 29 12 6 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -13. -23. -33. -41. -48. -54. -58. -60. -60. -61. -64. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -0. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 4. 4. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -6. -12. -16. -17. -24. -31. -37. -44. -45. -48. -50. -52. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 10.9 142.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/21/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.76 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 28.1 to 8.6 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 182.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.0% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 5.7% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 7.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/21/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##