* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/20/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 119 123 126 128 128 128 128 123 118 112 103 97 89 82 75 62 V (KT) LAND 115 119 123 126 128 128 128 128 123 118 112 103 97 89 82 75 62 V (KT) LGEM 115 118 119 121 123 125 125 119 113 106 96 84 75 68 63 59 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 3 3 5 7 8 5 5 13 13 21 20 21 25 41 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -3 -5 -5 -3 -2 0 1 5 5 5 5 4 9 10 SHEAR DIR 13 18 54 61 80 101 122 133 204 202 242 259 266 264 252 232 208 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.0 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 160 159 158 155 149 147 148 143 138 136 132 129 128 128 124 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -51.5 -51.9 -51.3 -51.4 -50.4 -50.8 -50.4 -51.0 -50.9 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 79 76 75 75 74 73 68 61 55 54 52 51 52 52 53 52 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 29 30 30 34 36 38 38 38 38 36 37 36 35 34 31 850 MB ENV VOR 59 64 64 71 72 92 94 117 115 109 96 95 93 74 73 148 120 200 MB DIV 165 118 108 87 103 99 109 123 110 96 119 55 22 41 75 45 -7 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -4 -1 0 2 3 4 3 7 10 15 21 14 2 -5 LAND (KM) 1989 1897 1804 1715 1625 1449 1287 1153 1015 906 845 817 838 869 935 1038 1130 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.9 11.2 12.0 13.0 14.0 15.3 16.8 18.1 19.2 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 139.1 140.0 140.8 141.6 142.3 143.7 144.8 145.6 146.3 146.7 146.9 147.0 146.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 30 33 34 30 26 25 27 27 34 26 28 20 10 6 5 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -1. -6. -14. -22. -29. -35. -40. -42. -43. -45. -47. -50. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. 2. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 15. 16. 16. 12. 12. 10. 8. 7. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. 8. 3. -3. -12. -18. -26. -33. -40. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 10.0 139.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/20/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.14 1.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.84 5.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 28.1 to 8.6 0.83 5.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.74 -6.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.08 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.87 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.30 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.45 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.7% 25.9% 19.6% 16.0% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 22.3% 39.6% 20.0% 13.7% 9.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 25.8% 30.4% 33.1% 20.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 21.6% 32.0% 24.2% 16.7% 8.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/20/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##