* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/19/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 91 98 104 110 115 115 110 106 103 98 92 86 82 82 79 76 V (KT) LAND 85 91 98 104 110 115 115 110 106 103 98 92 86 82 82 79 76 V (KT) LGEM 85 91 96 99 103 109 115 116 115 112 108 99 91 89 91 91 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 6 7 4 4 2 5 8 8 4 14 7 14 11 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 0 -1 -4 -5 -3 -4 -2 -2 4 0 6 -2 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 345 337 348 347 326 317 222 176 159 183 236 203 214 225 239 255 254 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.3 27.8 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 161 161 161 159 156 155 151 150 145 140 136 135 135 134 133 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -51.3 -51.7 -51.1 -51.3 -50.5 -51.5 -50.8 -51.3 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 71 73 74 76 77 73 71 65 59 50 48 48 50 46 43 40 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 24 26 26 27 29 30 32 34 34 34 31 32 34 33 35 850 MB ENV VOR 21 31 40 60 64 65 74 91 109 120 119 109 97 91 89 81 95 200 MB DIV 127 109 100 106 108 84 94 79 88 53 96 61 53 34 47 37 32 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -4 -2 0 1 3 5 6 7 5 3 4 2 4 2 LAND (KM) 2397 2300 2203 2109 2015 1828 1642 1454 1296 1158 1075 1041 1021 1012 1006 1004 1004 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.5 11.3 12.1 13.1 14.1 15.3 16.3 17.3 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 135.0 135.9 136.8 137.7 138.5 140.0 141.5 142.9 144.0 144.8 145.2 145.2 145.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 23 25 24 23 24 28 23 22 21 25 24 17 14 14 15 14 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 53.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 13. 17. 16. 14. 10. 9. 11. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 8. 2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 19. 25. 30. 30. 25. 21. 18. 13. 7. 1. -3. -3. -6. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 9.6 135.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/19/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.44 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 8.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.80 9.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 28.1 to 8.6 0.49 5.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.75 -9.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.56 5.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.85 7.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.23 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.57 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.4% 52.2% 36.8% 27.2% 19.5% 25.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 41.9% 69.3% 48.8% 40.4% 21.6% 21.1% 7.1% 4.0% Bayesian: 52.1% 75.4% 84.2% 74.6% 7.3% 53.5% 11.3% 0.2% Consensus: 40.8% 65.6% 56.6% 47.4% 16.1% 33.3% 6.1% 1.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/19/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##