* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192015 10/17/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 44 50 55 65 76 84 95 96 97 97 96 90 86 81 74 V (KT) LAND 35 40 44 50 55 65 76 84 95 96 97 97 96 90 86 81 74 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 44 48 52 61 70 81 90 98 100 98 94 88 82 76 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 7 8 9 12 9 1 1 3 7 8 9 12 13 24 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 2 0 -1 -1 2 -3 -3 0 -2 0 5 8 8 7 SHEAR DIR 4 351 328 303 319 342 358 328 356 197 174 213 202 220 218 223 226 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 158 160 160 158 155 153 151 152 151 152 148 146 145 143 140 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -51.6 -52.3 -51.2 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -51.2 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 64 63 66 67 69 72 72 72 70 64 58 56 57 54 53 51 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 15 16 18 22 25 30 32 33 34 36 34 34 33 33 850 MB ENV VOR 15 15 17 19 18 21 23 37 45 46 58 76 87 98 116 122 135 200 MB DIV 61 59 49 62 76 76 118 112 146 63 111 106 111 75 67 54 12 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -2 -2 -2 -5 -6 -4 0 3 8 10 7 8 10 13 19 LAND (KM) 2291 2365 2441 2503 2566 2648 2476 2284 2098 1908 1744 1600 1508 1474 1473 1522 1568 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.7 9.7 10.0 10.5 11.2 12.0 13.1 14.1 15.2 16.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.0 128.0 128.9 129.8 130.6 132.2 133.7 135.3 136.8 138.2 139.4 140.4 141.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 6 4 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 32 26 25 26 27 25 21 19 13 15 25 29 26 27 34 27 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 34. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 9. 7. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 23. 25. 26. 26. 25. 21. 19. 16. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 1. -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 15. 20. 30. 41. 49. 60. 61. 62. 62. 61. 55. 51. 46. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 9.7 127.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 NINETEEN 10/17/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.89 9.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.52 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 28.1 to 8.6 0.44 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.77 -6.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.61 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.27 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.57 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 43% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 56% is 12.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.8% 33.1% 23.3% 18.6% 13.3% 26.9% 43.3% 56.3% Logistic: 34.2% 80.5% 65.8% 56.2% 25.5% 72.3% 79.5% 83.2% Bayesian: 2.2% 59.8% 42.8% 14.8% 2.7% 51.5% 38.3% 31.8% Consensus: 17.1% 57.8% 44.0% 29.9% 13.8% 50.2% 53.7% 57.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 NINETEEN 10/17/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##