* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/11/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 63 64 63 60 56 52 46 39 36 33 29 30 31 31 32 V (KT) LAND 60 62 63 64 63 60 56 52 46 39 36 33 29 30 31 31 32 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 64 64 63 59 54 49 43 36 30 25 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 15 14 15 15 20 22 30 29 23 28 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -1 -4 0 3 2 3 4 6 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 213 223 230 231 240 251 264 246 239 238 232 221 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 155 153 151 149 151 150 149 146 141 138 137 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.2 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 47 46 44 43 46 48 52 50 50 50 48 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 13 11 11 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 50 52 54 57 51 46 34 9 -10 -24 -33 -49 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 45 60 33 20 16 10 45 34 27 16 -1 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 1 3 2 1 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1481 1394 1308 1228 1149 1012 897 816 751 730 726 744 764 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.5 14.0 14.7 15.4 16.2 17.0 17.6 18.0 18.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 142.8 143.7 144.5 145.3 146.0 147.2 148.0 148.4 148.6 148.4 148.2 147.9 147.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 30 32 27 25 27 26 24 24 23 23 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 410 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -4. -8. -14. -21. -24. -27. -31. -30. -29. -29. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 12.8 142.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/11/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.60 10.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 8.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.37 4.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 28.1 to 8.6 0.32 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 496.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.30 -4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 10.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.61 6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.27 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.58 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.7% 44.3% 43.8% 43.0% 33.2% 27.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.8% 18.0% 12.1% 8.5% 7.6% 4.6% 5.2% 0.9% Bayesian: 4.0% 21.7% 3.3% 0.8% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 13.1% 28.0% 19.7% 17.4% 14.1% 10.9% 1.9% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/11/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##