* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/07/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 77 75 71 59 46 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 77 77 75 71 59 46 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 77 76 73 68 54 38 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 15 21 21 21 32 46 64 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 6 10 15 12 10 10 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 121 184 212 213 215 213 212 217 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.1 26.7 26.1 25.8 22.8 20.4 17.8 13.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 139 136 130 128 98 73 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -49.8 -50.0 -49.9 -49.5 -50.3 -51.3 -51.6 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 4 2 1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 66 59 53 50 46 47 47 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 147 152 142 133 115 46 62 63 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 70 77 66 79 87 43 76 98 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -4 4 -21 -35 -49 -49 -129 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 629 678 795 998 1242 1824 1166 702 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 19.0 20.9 23.5 26.0 31.7 38.0 44.4 50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 149.4 148.4 147.3 146.1 144.9 141.6 137.5 133.0 128.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 21 25 28 30 34 36 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 26 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 14 CX,CY: 12/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -10. -17. -24. -27. -30. -33. -36. -39. -43. -45. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -14. -33. -47. -59. -64. -70. -78. -86. -96.-101. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. -0. -4. -16. -29. -43. -62. -77. -92.-102.-114.-130.-148.-165.-177. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.1 149.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/07/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.29 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.3 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 326.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.72 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 5.4% 3.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/07/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##