* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/02/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 110 109 110 108 101 96 91 89 83 82 81 78 66 58 55 46 V (KT) LAND 110 110 109 110 108 101 96 91 89 83 82 81 78 66 58 55 41 V (KT) LGEM 110 108 108 107 106 101 93 84 77 72 71 70 59 51 48 46 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 18 21 19 26 22 22 15 20 20 28 38 45 48 37 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 16 12 0 3 6 0 3 1 5 -1 5 7 15 4 7 7 9 SHEAR DIR 342 306 300 303 295 278 262 233 197 218 219 240 239 258 254 238 225 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.2 29.2 28.4 27.8 27.0 26.9 25.9 25.0 22.5 17.5 16.6 14.6 14.9 14.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 162 156 156 144 135 125 124 115 110 95 79 78 75 75 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 145 146 141 140 128 119 108 106 100 98 87 75 74 72 72 71 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.5 -50.6 -50.1 -49.5 -49.6 -49.7 -50.4 -50.5 -51.0 -51.2 -51.5 -50.5 -50.1 -49.7 -50.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 2.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 8 8 8 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 62 61 60 60 62 62 62 61 58 56 54 50 48 47 45 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 33 36 37 37 39 39 41 41 42 44 46 42 41 42 39 850 MB ENV VOR 124 134 135 150 149 149 147 141 138 130 137 154 187 204 215 199 132 200 MB DIV 62 73 81 86 79 42 68 28 49 18 44 65 83 67 52 46 18 700-850 TADV 26 27 27 35 47 51 50 33 13 13 -19 13 13 53 63 5 32 LAND (KM) 322 410 498 626 756 817 731 705 655 579 550 479 699 1280 1277 566 -47 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.5 25.2 26.2 27.1 29.3 31.7 34.2 36.4 38.4 40.4 42.4 44.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.8 74.3 73.9 73.1 72.3 70.7 69.4 68.2 66.6 64.1 59.5 52.7 44.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 10 12 12 13 13 13 13 17 24 29 31 32 32 31 30 HEAT CONTENT 52 48 50 53 42 40 27 11 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 2. 2. -2. -10. -21. -30. -39. -45. -51. -58. -65. -70. -74. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -8. -13. -14. -12. -8. -5. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 8. 6. 7. 9. 11. 5. 2. 3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -0. -2. -9. -14. -19. -21. -27. -28. -28. -32. -44. -52. -55. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 23.8 74.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/02/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.8 41.0 to 7.4 0.30 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.33 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.95 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.23 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.03 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.44 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.52 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 318.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.56 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 12.3% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.3% 9.4% 5.8% 7.6% 4.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.6% 0.9% 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.1% 7.5% 5.1% 2.8% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/02/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/02/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 28( 49) 28( 63) 23( 72) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 66 7( 68) 2( 69) 0( 69) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 110 109 110 108 101 96 91 89 83 82 81 78 66 58 55 41 18HR AGO 110 109 108 109 107 100 95 90 88 82 81 80 77 65 57 54 40 12HR AGO 110 107 106 107 105 98 93 88 86 80 79 78 75 63 55 52 38 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 98 91 86 81 79 73 72 71 68 56 48 45 31 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 84 79 74 72 66 65 64 61 49 41 38 24 IN 6HR 110 110 101 95 92 87 82 77 75 69 68 67 64 52 44 41 27 IN 12HR 110 110 109 100 94 90 85 80 78 72 71 70 67 55 47 44 30