* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/01/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 116 116 115 115 113 111 107 98 89 82 77 73 70 66 53 39 V (KT) LAND 115 116 116 115 115 113 111 107 98 89 82 77 73 70 66 53 39 V (KT) LGEM 115 116 114 112 111 112 112 106 87 73 64 57 52 47 42 36 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 8 6 8 8 14 20 28 21 29 33 37 42 57 76 79 81 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 18 14 10 11 -1 3 9 8 8 6 5 9 8 2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 15 18 12 339 316 300 297 276 248 228 205 216 225 236 235 242 245 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 28.8 27.7 27.4 25.7 24.2 18.4 20.0 17.0 10.8 14.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 163 164 165 166 163 149 133 129 111 100 78 84 78 71 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 141 144 146 149 143 129 113 108 94 86 73 78 74 70 71 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -50.2 -49.9 -49.1 -48.9 -48.5 -48.9 -49.9 -50.6 -50.7 -50.6 -51.2 -51.6 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.4 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 65 65 66 65 58 49 43 50 59 61 54 43 43 45 46 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 34 34 32 34 37 39 41 37 37 37 38 39 41 44 41 37 850 MB ENV VOR 84 96 97 110 124 148 187 202 149 107 98 114 115 69 21 -23 -45 200 MB DIV 41 42 54 74 99 83 81 60 42 19 67 55 18 26 10 24 27 700-850 TADV 8 11 8 6 18 12 42 75 49 38 38 0 -8 -5 -3 9 36 LAND (KM) 265 269 276 337 400 574 646 523 352 211 208 156 113 199 260 426 1021 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.2 23.3 23.9 24.5 26.3 28.6 30.8 32.9 34.9 36.9 38.9 40.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.2 74.4 74.6 74.6 74.7 74.3 73.8 73.5 73.4 73.6 73.5 72.7 69.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 4 6 8 11 11 11 10 10 10 13 20 26 30 30 30 HEAT CONTENT 57 57 57 51 48 88 47 26 19 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 465 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -10. -19. -27. -36. -44. -51. -58. -65. -71. -75. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -12. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 6. 9. 4. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -17. -26. -33. -38. -42. -45. -49. -62. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 23.0 74.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/01/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.6 41.0 to 7.4 0.28 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.37 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.93 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.16 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.46 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 374.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.50 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 17.9% 15.4% 9.6% 13.7% 10.6% 7.0% 2.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 13.0% 15.0% 6.7% 6.6% 2.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.0% 14.7% 5.4% 6.8% 4.4% 2.5% 0.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/01/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/01/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 31( 52) 31( 67) 30( 77) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 31 40( 59) 38( 74) 4( 75) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 116 116 115 115 113 111 107 98 89 82 77 73 70 66 53 39 18HR AGO 115 114 114 113 113 111 109 105 96 87 80 75 71 68 64 51 37 12HR AGO 115 112 111 110 110 108 106 102 93 84 77 72 68 65 61 48 34 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 105 103 101 97 88 79 72 67 63 60 56 43 29 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 94 92 88 79 70 63 58 54 51 47 34 20 IN 6HR 115 116 107 101 98 96 94 90 81 72 65 60 56 53 49 36 22 IN 12HR 115 116 116 107 101 97 95 91 82 73 66 61 57 54 50 37 23