* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP172015 09/30/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 35 32 30 29 32 33 39 43 46 48 50 53 55 56 59 V (KT) LAND 45 40 35 32 30 29 32 33 39 43 46 48 50 53 55 56 59 V (KT) LGEM 45 41 38 35 33 29 26 24 23 23 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 23 24 25 26 22 16 14 7 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 3 4 4 0 2 1 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 242 231 228 227 240 253 274 274 256 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.1 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 166 167 166 164 162 161 163 165 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -52.2 -51.8 -52.3 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 9 10 8 10 8 10 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 65 64 64 63 67 67 68 71 74 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 6 6 6 5 6 7 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 22 12 10 -4 -21 -34 -16 -1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 25 20 28 27 37 39 52 77 43 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 -1 0 -1 0 1 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 110 113 122 144 145 180 230 275 301 338 386 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.9 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.2 101.5 101.8 102.3 102.8 104.0 105.0 105.9 106.7 107.4 108.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 33 31 30 30 28 28 35 55 65 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 23. 25. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -13. -15. -16. -13. -12. -6. -2. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.3 101.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172015 MARTY 09/30/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.87 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.32 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.9 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.19 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.18 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 MARTY 09/30/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##