* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP172015 09/29/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 49 42 36 33 30 27 26 28 29 30 32 35 38 41 44 47 V (KT) LAND 55 49 42 36 33 30 27 26 28 29 30 32 35 38 41 44 47 V (KT) LGEM 55 49 43 39 36 31 27 24 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 18 22 23 26 29 22 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 3 6 5 2 7 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 232 239 245 245 244 236 255 297 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.1 30.0 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 165 166 165 166 163 162 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -51.9 -51.8 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 8 7 11 8 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 63 62 63 64 64 67 66 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 8 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 18 21 19 -4 -19 -30 -46 -51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 54 46 10 5 22 16 39 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 143 134 124 136 147 135 165 210 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.8 16.9 16.9 17.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.7 101.7 101.7 101.9 102.2 103.0 103.9 104.7 105.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 33 32 31 31 29 29 28 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 16. 18. 20. 22. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -9. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -19. -22. -25. -28. -29. -27. -26. -25. -23. -20. -17. -14. -11. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.2 101.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172015 MARTY 09/29/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.76 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.36 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.7 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 MARTY 09/29/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##