* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 09/29/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 45 46 47 50 57 64 72 74 71 70 67 65 63 61 V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 45 46 47 50 57 64 72 74 71 70 67 65 63 61 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 45 46 46 48 52 59 67 70 68 65 59 54 51 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 20 17 18 17 14 8 6 5 13 15 27 17 20 25 24 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 3 2 0 0 -1 -4 -2 4 8 4 1 3 4 12 SHEAR DIR 354 14 12 16 9 1 9 312 305 302 279 217 189 208 243 256 260 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 28.4 27.8 27.2 26.3 24.6 23.8 23.6 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 161 161 160 160 161 161 163 142 134 127 116 99 92 90 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 135 135 135 134 134 134 136 139 121 114 106 95 82 76 74 72 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.0 -52.1 -51.4 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -52.8 -51.2 -50.3 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 8 8 6 5 3 3 2 2 0 700-500 MB RH 60 61 62 62 65 68 66 63 58 47 42 46 50 51 48 46 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 16 16 16 15 16 16 18 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 34 19 9 18 50 73 118 146 180 184 213 166 167 183 189 158 200 MB DIV 11 3 -8 2 9 14 48 74 83 88 106 50 53 52 26 7 6 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 0 3 15 46 52 16 1 -10 -31 -30 LAND (KM) 746 750 747 735 722 719 700 690 687 536 391 270 255 195 154 149 144 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.9 27.4 28.1 29.3 31.0 33.0 35.2 37.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.6 71.1 71.5 71.8 72.2 72.7 73.0 73.2 73.1 72.9 72.8 72.8 72.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 8 9 10 10 7 4 2 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 50 43 42 44 47 51 55 59 48 25 21 12 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 20. 18. 15. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -2. -3. -1. -2. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 10. 17. 24. 32. 34. 31. 30. 27. 25. 23. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 26.5 70.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/29/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.5 41.0 to 7.4 0.37 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.31 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.14 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.67 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.93 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.16 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.76 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 14.2% 9.5% 7.1% 5.8% 9.0% 12.0% 30.4% Logistic: 5.6% 18.8% 10.3% 1.6% 1.0% 4.8% 11.0% 27.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 3.9% Consensus: 3.9% 12.0% 6.8% 2.9% 2.3% 4.7% 7.8% 20.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/29/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/29/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 43 45 46 47 50 57 64 72 74 71 70 67 65 63 61 18HR AGO 40 39 40 42 43 44 47 54 61 69 71 68 67 64 62 60 58 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 39 40 43 50 57 65 67 64 63 60 58 56 54 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 32 35 42 49 57 59 56 55 52 50 48 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT