* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP172015 09/29/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 70 67 63 51 43 38 37 38 41 42 44 46 48 50 52 V (KT) LAND 70 71 70 67 63 51 43 38 37 38 41 42 44 46 48 50 52 V (KT) LGEM 70 72 71 68 63 53 46 41 35 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 24 28 31 25 26 30 27 26 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -3 -1 1 4 5 6 2 10 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 262 254 245 242 233 227 236 246 259 262 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 163 162 161 162 163 164 164 164 166 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 -50.6 -51.4 -50.9 -51.6 -51.6 -52.2 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 10 12 8 11 8 10 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 61 60 57 56 63 64 68 68 71 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 10 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 11 13 17 20 17 -9 -21 -28 -36 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 27 44 60 54 53 32 27 31 38 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 -1 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 116 95 73 60 47 60 49 107 162 194 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.8 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.0 101.8 101.6 101.6 101.6 102.1 103.0 104.2 105.2 106.0 106.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 1 2 3 5 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 29 29 27 27 26 26 28 30 36 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -17. -15. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -8. -11. -14. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -3. -7. -19. -27. -32. -33. -32. -29. -28. -26. -24. -22. -20. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 16.7 102.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172015 MARTY 09/29/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.60 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.42 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.3 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.80 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 MARTY 09/29/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##