* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP172015 09/28/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 67 68 69 68 62 48 44 41 40 41 44 46 48 49 48 V (KT) LAND 60 63 67 68 69 68 62 48 44 41 40 41 44 46 48 49 48 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 64 65 65 63 56 47 43 42 41 40 40 41 44 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 20 19 20 23 28 27 18 21 20 18 20 17 15 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -2 1 1 2 5 4 5 3 6 -1 -1 -1 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 280 275 259 242 242 234 229 234 248 275 294 318 334 358 320 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.5 30.4 30.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 163 163 162 162 163 163 163 163 164 168 166 162 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -51.0 -51.1 -51.3 -50.8 -51.3 -51.0 -51.7 -51.3 -52.0 -51.4 -52.2 -51.7 -52.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 7 11 8 10 7 10 8 9 7 9 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 66 64 63 60 58 62 66 69 71 69 72 74 73 68 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 16 17 16 14 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 11 20 25 15 15 19 5 -30 -27 -25 -13 0 20 13 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 47 60 59 50 61 67 70 21 36 46 74 55 97 82 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 -2 1 -1 4 6 -3 3 16 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 224 200 178 161 142 111 89 109 137 184 221 240 278 326 376 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.2 17.3 17.3 17.4 17.6 17.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.1 102.9 102.7 102.5 102.4 102.4 102.8 103.4 104.1 104.8 105.6 106.3 107.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 2 2 1 2 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 32 31 29 29 28 27 28 29 30 32 45 63 61 42 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. -14. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -2. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 8. 9. 8. 2. -12. -16. -19. -20. -19. -16. -14. -12. -11. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.0 103.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172015 MARTY 09/28/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.70 8.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.47 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 28.1 to 8.6 0.03 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.74 -7.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 7.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.96 6.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.31 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.54 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.2% 40.3% 28.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.2% 19.4% 6.3% 3.4% 4.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 8.2% 21.3% 11.5% 1.1% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 MARTY 09/28/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##