* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIALA CP062015 09/26/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 48 44 37 31 27 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 48 44 37 31 27 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 51 49 47 44 37 31 26 23 21 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 27 28 33 35 36 38 31 31 30 36 36 36 26 5 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 2 3 4 0 0 -2 1 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 -6 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 257 253 251 250 254 256 263 257 260 261 255 259 260 262 311 332 346 SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.9 29.9 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 144 144 145 147 147 146 147 150 153 154 156 156 163 160 157 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.1 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 56 57 56 57 57 53 53 52 54 54 60 62 66 71 82 81 80 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 11 11 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 2 6 23 19 30 40 43 55 68 81 72 76 110 116 118 112 200 MB DIV 26 8 14 15 16 12 23 34 20 27 29 31 61 91 107 105 128 700-850 TADV 13 13 8 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 1 0 8 12 LAND (KM) 437 375 313 270 231 185 182 207 250 304 390 487 588 826 1005 983 944 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.7 17.8 17.8 17.6 17.3 17.1 16.9 16.7 16.3 15.9 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 151.5 152.0 152.5 153.0 153.5 154.6 155.4 156.1 156.7 157.4 158.2 159.1 160.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 4 5 5 11 9 7 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 48 48 45 42 41 35 29 29 31 38 48 51 50 48 42 41 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. 18. 19. 20. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -18. -23. -26. -30. -33. -35. -34. -32. -30. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -2. -6. -13. -19. -23. -28. -31. -34. -36. -35. -34. -30. -27. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 17.1 151.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP062015 NIALA 09/26/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.61 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 41.9 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 265.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP062015 NIALA 09/26/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##