* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIALA CP062015 09/26/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 50 48 44 40 34 28 25 21 18 17 16 18 20 23 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 50 48 44 40 34 28 25 21 18 17 16 18 20 23 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 49 47 42 36 31 27 23 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 16 19 22 23 27 25 30 28 29 31 36 41 41 20 9 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 4 3 0 3 3 0 1 0 2 -5 -5 0 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 279 266 270 258 260 253 253 263 260 264 257 260 264 270 266 282 327 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.7 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 145 147 146 147 146 146 146 145 146 148 148 148 150 156 157 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 56 57 59 58 59 57 54 53 54 54 54 54 55 65 72 77 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 11 11 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 13 3 4 1 10 36 38 40 54 66 71 81 101 102 105 90 200 MB DIV 27 37 31 28 24 13 31 22 25 -2 3 -12 32 46 67 71 75 700-850 TADV 5 7 10 15 11 6 2 3 1 2 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 589 516 442 377 314 254 207 195 215 241 293 355 419 570 821 903 902 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.2 17.0 16.9 16.7 16.4 16.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 150.6 151.2 151.7 152.3 152.9 153.9 154.7 155.3 155.9 156.5 157.2 157.8 158.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 9 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 36 45 51 48 43 34 31 28 27 28 31 36 39 42 34 32 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -17. -20. -23. -26. -28. -27. -26. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 3. -1. -5. -11. -17. -20. -24. -27. -28. -29. -27. -25. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.0 150.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP062015 NIALA 09/26/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.67 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.34 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 215.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 4.7% 6.4% 2.3% 1.6% 0.5% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP062015 NIALA 09/26/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##