* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/20/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 34 34 33 33 35 36 40 42 45 45 48 50 55 61 V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 34 34 33 33 35 36 40 42 45 45 48 50 55 61 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 34 33 33 33 34 35 36 36 36 37 40 44 49 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 10 7 3 5 10 12 23 23 24 15 15 14 17 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 2 4 9 8 7 8 3 0 0 2 -2 -3 -5 -7 SHEAR DIR 280 270 280 287 247 219 258 275 302 294 313 292 294 284 295 293 321 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 137 138 138 138 137 136 135 135 135 138 140 145 149 152 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 130 129 128 126 123 119 117 115 117 117 120 122 126 130 133 134 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 -54.6 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 66 65 67 69 67 66 66 65 60 57 52 48 47 49 47 51 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 14 14 13 12 12 13 15 14 14 13 13 13 15 17 850 MB ENV VOR 13 7 11 13 12 4 1 15 22 35 30 34 22 24 2 5 -9 200 MB DIV 31 43 41 47 35 24 31 3 19 10 14 2 5 12 6 25 7 700-850 TADV -10 -9 -8 -7 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -6 -3 -3 0 -1 0 0 3 LAND (KM) 1591 1587 1594 1617 1639 1678 1679 1678 1685 1685 1691 1705 1719 1740 1754 1741 1723 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.4 18.0 18.6 19.1 19.9 20.3 20.4 20.5 20.5 20.6 20.8 21.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.3 45.3 46.3 47.0 47.7 48.5 48.8 48.9 48.9 48.9 48.9 48.9 49.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 9 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 13 16 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 22 25 28 29 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -6. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -8. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 1. 5. 7. 10. 10. 13. 15. 20. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.8 44.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/20/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 41.0 to 7.4 0.55 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.55 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.65 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.11 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.34 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.78 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.91 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 12.9% 8.7% 6.9% 5.8% 9.0% 8.9% 12.2% Logistic: 0.5% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 1.3% 1.3% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 5.0% 3.2% 2.4% 2.0% 3.5% 3.4% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/20/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/20/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 34 34 34 33 33 35 36 40 42 45 45 48 50 55 61 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 34 33 33 35 36 40 42 45 45 48 50 55 61 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 30 30 32 33 37 39 42 42 45 47 52 58 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 24 24 26 27 31 33 36 36 39 41 46 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT