* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092015 09/17/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 21 20 20 19 18 16 17 17 19 21 22 24 27 30 V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 21 20 20 19 18 16 17 17 19 21 22 24 27 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 20 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 20 23 24 24 28 34 28 22 16 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 3 1 1 4 -1 5 0 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 232 243 250 247 241 224 230 213 225 203 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.6 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 130 131 134 137 139 141 139 141 145 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 119 121 124 126 127 128 126 128 131 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 60 57 54 54 53 50 50 45 46 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 37 29 30 33 53 59 72 77 85 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 11 7 18 10 2 25 10 3 19 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 3 2 2 0 2 -1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1493 1511 1531 1554 1581 1619 1608 1535 1483 1354 1226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.6 18.1 19.0 19.6 20.1 20.7 21.5 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.0 45.4 45.8 46.3 46.8 47.9 49.1 50.4 51.7 53.2 54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 11 12 15 18 23 22 27 33 36 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 32. 35. 35. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. -6. -9. -13. -15. -17. -18. -20. -21. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -13. -14. -18. -19. -19. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -8. -8. -6. -4. -3. -1. 2. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.2 45.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092015 NINE 09/17/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.4 41.0 to 7.4 0.25 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.69 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.68 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.31 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.21 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.77 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.2 95.0 to 0.0 0.45 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 8.4% 5.7% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.1% 2.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092015 NINE 09/17/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092015 NINE 09/17/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 23 22 21 20 20 19 18 16 17 17 19 21 22 24 27 30 18HR AGO 25 24 23 22 21 21 20 19 17 18 18 20 22 23 25 28 31 12HR AGO 25 22 21 20 19 19 18 17 15 16 16 18 20 21 23 26 29 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT