* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152015 09/07/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 79 88 94 98 103 97 85 73 60 51 43 38 36 34 33 31 V (KT) LAND 70 79 88 94 98 103 97 85 73 60 51 43 38 36 34 33 31 V (KT) LGEM 70 79 86 91 93 93 85 74 63 54 46 41 37 34 32 31 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 10 9 8 11 9 11 7 6 7 3 5 3 4 2 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 0 -3 -4 -7 -3 -6 -1 -3 0 -3 0 -4 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 48 57 64 99 112 104 116 114 151 149 181 210 215 263 192 194 224 SST (C) 29.8 29.4 29.0 28.5 27.9 26.7 25.8 24.9 24.3 24.1 24.0 24.2 24.3 24.5 24.6 24.7 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 164 160 155 150 143 130 120 110 103 101 101 103 104 105 106 106 107 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.1 -50.7 -50.2 -50.7 -50.5 -50.5 -50.5 -50.1 -50.5 -50.6 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -51.7 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 85 86 84 81 77 74 66 63 58 52 46 42 39 36 33 32 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 24 25 25 24 27 26 24 23 20 19 16 14 13 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 32 30 42 50 48 73 52 49 35 33 24 24 13 7 2 1 -1 200 MB DIV 106 89 90 104 91 62 4 14 13 0 -5 0 -18 -8 -6 -11 -19 700-850 TADV -11 -6 -2 0 0 -2 0 -2 3 3 3 2 3 3 1 2 0 LAND (KM) 716 663 593 552 539 495 481 510 512 542 610 718 823 931 1011 1085 1153 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 17.2 18.1 19.0 19.9 21.3 22.5 23.5 24.2 24.6 24.9 25.0 25.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.9 111.7 112.5 113.3 114.1 115.3 116.3 117.3 118.2 119.1 120.2 121.5 122.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 10 8 7 6 5 5 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 30 31 18 11 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 52.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -21. -23. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 9. 14. 13. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 18. 24. 28. 33. 27. 15. 3. -10. -19. -27. -32. -34. -36. -37. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 16.2 110.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152015 LINDA 09/07/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.52 9.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.67 12.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.72 10.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 28.1 to 8.6 0.50 6.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 14.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.89 -14.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.80 9.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.92 10.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.18 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.59 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 62% is 9.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 67% is 5.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 62.0% 67.3% 48.6% 40.4% 26.4% 26.5% 16.8% 0.0% Logistic: 35.1% 61.3% 30.9% 25.3% 15.2% 20.4% 6.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 47.3% 45.5% 52.9% 46.6% 12.7% 6.5% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 48.1% 58.1% 44.1% 37.4% 18.1% 17.8% 7.8% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152015 LINDA 09/07/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##