* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/07/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 40 38 38 35 31 24 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 42 40 38 38 35 31 24 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 42 40 37 35 32 29 28 27 26 25 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 23 22 24 21 19 27 35 28 35 30 41 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 2 0 0 3 -1 -4 3 0 2 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 272 273 277 280 276 276 266 289 287 278 274 319 330 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.3 27.2 27.5 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 122 122 122 122 126 126 126 125 134 137 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.6 -50.8 -51.0 -51.2 -51.6 -51.6 -52.3 -51.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.8 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 50 52 52 53 51 54 54 56 55 55 54 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 26 25 24 24 21 19 17 22 19 22 20 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 19 8 5 1 -9 -13 -11 -2 -9 8 4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 -15 -33 -38 -31 8 9 11 25 -14 18 -26 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 0 1 4 1 -4 -3 0 -5 -1 -2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 882 872 860 823 791 717 635 553 480 453 465 510 581 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.3 25.8 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 148.8 149.4 150.0 150.7 151.4 152.9 154.5 156.2 157.8 159.3 160.6 161.9 163.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 1 1 12 13 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -7. -15. -23. -29. -34. -37. -39. -42. -48. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -9. -13. -8. -13. -9. -11. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -7. -10. -14. -21. -20. -30. -30. -37. -44. -46. -47. -49. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 25.3 148.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/07/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.46 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.05 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.5 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 280.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/07/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##