* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072015 09/07/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 47 46 44 42 40 39 39 40 40 39 39 41 42 47 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 47 46 44 42 40 39 39 40 40 39 39 36 35 31 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 48 47 45 41 37 33 30 28 27 25 23 20 21 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 11 16 19 24 24 29 26 27 26 33 35 26 21 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 3 3 0 2 0 3 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 219 230 252 259 256 261 263 261 264 275 258 260 260 280 273 294 302 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.7 28.2 28.4 29.1 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 141 138 138 137 137 135 142 144 155 151 154 159 159 156 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 144 141 138 138 137 137 135 142 144 155 149 149 153 152 148 152 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 9 10 11 11 13 13 14 14 15 14 15 14 15 700-500 MB RH 48 48 46 45 44 46 46 46 47 46 49 47 49 50 52 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 13 12 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 2 3 850 MB ENV VOR 33 22 18 17 11 4 -2 -19 -27 -38 -34 -46 -42 -42 -26 -35 -33 200 MB DIV 6 -2 -17 -12 -5 3 22 -1 12 8 7 -6 5 8 12 -27 -9 700-850 TADV 4 0 -2 -4 -6 -6 0 -2 -8 -2 -1 0 -6 -1 1 1 -6 LAND (KM) 1552 1705 1859 1888 1844 1624 1438 1256 1153 995 779 678 410 162 -24 -17 -66 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.8 33.2 34.7 36.1 37.6 40.5 43.6 46.8 50.0 53.3 56.4 59.4 62.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 15 15 15 16 16 16 15 14 12 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 18 16 16 11 24 29 21 24 37 55 47 53 57 74 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 20. 22. 25. 27. 27. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -14. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.2 31.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072015 GRACE 09/07/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 41.0 to 7.4 0.41 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.78 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.68 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.37 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.11 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 376.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.50 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 15.1% 10.2% 8.5% 7.7% 9.8% 9.4% 10.5% Logistic: 4.3% 9.3% 9.2% 7.7% 2.2% 3.5% 0.8% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.6% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 3.8% 8.3% 6.8% 5.4% 3.3% 4.5% 3.4% 3.8% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072015 GRACE 09/07/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 47 46 44 42 40 39 39 40 40 39 39 36 35 31 18HR AGO 45 44 45 45 44 42 40 38 37 37 38 38 37 37 34 33 29 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 40 38 36 34 33 33 34 34 33 33 30 29 25 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 32 30 28 27 27 28 28 27 27 24 23 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT