* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/06/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 32 36 42 49 52 52 51 50 50 52 52 53 53 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 32 36 42 49 52 52 51 50 50 52 52 53 53 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 32 36 40 42 43 42 42 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 19 18 15 11 7 15 19 22 23 25 19 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -1 -1 0 -1 -6 -4 -6 -5 -5 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 323 337 349 356 7 250 257 258 266 258 267 267 286 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.7 26.8 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 139 138 135 136 132 125 123 122 118 119 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 122 122 121 119 119 114 106 103 101 98 98 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -54.8 -55.1 -55.3 -55.6 -55.9 -56.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 11 10 9 7 6 4 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 48 51 54 53 48 45 42 43 41 43 42 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -44 -46 -22 -21 -33 -50 -62 -66 -71 -78 -61 -52 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -33 -10 16 0 -10 13 -11 9 4 17 -10 -17 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 -3 -4 0 1 7 4 0 -1 0 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2381 2445 2475 2418 2360 2261 2211 2181 2137 2029 1918 1831 1740 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.5 25.2 25.9 26.7 27.4 29.0 30.3 31.5 32.3 32.6 32.4 32.0 31.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.3 43.2 43.1 42.6 42.0 40.4 38.7 37.1 35.5 34.1 32.9 32.1 31.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 9 10 11 9 8 7 5 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 22 22 17 11 10 9 4 3 4 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 854 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. 21. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -5. -7. -8. -11. -12. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 6. 12. 19. 22. 22. 21. 20. 20. 22. 22. 23. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 24.5 43.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/06/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 41.0 to 7.4 0.47 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.31 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.63 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.10 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 242.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.65 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 63.7 95.0 to 0.0 0.33 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 8.9% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 6.1% 4.6% 2.3% 0.5% 2.9% 3.3% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.0% 3.6% 0.8% 0.2% 3.4% 1.1% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062015 FRED 09/06/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/06/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 32 32 36 42 49 52 52 51 50 50 52 52 53 53 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 30 34 40 47 50 50 49 48 48 50 50 51 51 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 31 37 44 47 47 46 45 45 47 47 48 48 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 24 30 37 40 40 39 38 38 40 40 41 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT