* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 09/04/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 63 61 58 51 43 34 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 63 61 58 51 43 34 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 66 66 64 60 51 41 33 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 21 24 20 8 10 11 13 26 35 42 44 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 -1 -5 -5 0 0 2 3 6 7 3 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 167 166 176 194 234 246 257 263 258 260 274 290 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.8 24.3 24.1 24.0 23.6 21.9 19.6 17.7 15.1 14.2 14.7 13.9 13.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 107 105 104 100 83 63 64 66 66 66 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -53.5 -53.8 -55.0 -55.0 -54.3 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 -0.1 -0.6 -0.4 0.0 0.1 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 49 46 46 47 45 49 52 47 40 40 47 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 34 36 34 33 33 29 25 24 21 16 14 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 75 89 87 85 75 36 2 4 41 45 31 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 71 70 30 10 16 -2 18 14 -2 4 -1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 8 5 6 13 5 8 -3 -3 -21 -12 7 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1151 1288 1426 1578 1732 1767 1437 1145 964 1056 583 161 -272 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.8 33.1 34.3 35.7 37.1 40.1 42.9 45.4 47.8 50.1 51.6 52.4 53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 164.0 164.3 164.5 164.7 164.9 164.6 162.8 159.6 154.2 146.8 139.3 132.0 124.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 14 15 16 19 25 26 24 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 813 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -15. -20. -25. -29. -34. -39. -45. -49. -54. -57. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 2. -3. -12. -24. -32. -40. -45. -52. -60. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 1. -2. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. -18. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 2. 2. 1. -2. -7. -9. -14. -20. -22. -30. -27. -24. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 4. 3. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -2. -3. -7. -14. -22. -31. -47. -66. -81.-105.-118.-130.-145.-152. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 31.8 164.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 09/04/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.10 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.46 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 28.1 to 8.6 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 456.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.18 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 09/04/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##