* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/04/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 76 73 69 67 60 57 57 56 55 53 49 46 46 46 47 49 V (KT) LAND 80 76 73 69 67 60 57 57 56 55 53 49 46 46 46 47 49 V (KT) LGEM 80 76 72 69 65 59 53 48 44 40 38 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 17 17 15 17 22 24 25 22 24 23 25 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 5 7 7 8 8 4 7 2 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 281 281 278 263 258 249 249 255 252 273 279 295 297 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.9 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 132 131 131 131 132 131 130 129 127 126 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.6 -50.7 -50.3 -50.4 -50.9 -50.9 -51.2 -50.6 -50.9 -50.7 -51.2 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 48 50 50 50 52 50 54 52 53 49 49 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 33 34 33 34 33 33 33 31 31 30 27 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 91 85 90 89 84 71 64 62 45 45 30 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 -8 -3 5 14 32 29 14 -5 -1 -33 -29 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 9 12 14 13 23 23 22 11 5 0 -5 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1067 1046 1025 1011 998 973 948 937 932 915 889 831 777 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.4 20.7 21.6 22.7 23.7 24.5 25.1 25.5 25.5 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 144.6 144.8 145.0 145.2 145.3 145.7 146.3 146.9 147.5 148.2 148.9 149.7 150.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 8 7 6 5 3 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -14. -16. -18. -20. -21. -23. -24. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 9. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -0. -1. -4. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -11. -13. -20. -23. -23. -24. -25. -27. -31. -34. -34. -34. -33. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 19.4 144.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/04/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.21 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.19 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.6 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 520.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 3.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/04/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##