* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 09/03/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 67 68 68 70 69 65 56 44 35 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 66 67 68 68 70 69 65 56 44 35 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 67 67 67 67 66 59 51 41 33 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 12 16 13 16 17 20 14 14 11 24 38 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -6 -5 3 2 1 -4 -1 0 3 7 9 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 235 308 323 291 271 156 170 188 212 232 255 240 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.2 25.8 25.6 25.4 24.3 24.0 22.9 21.5 18.5 16.5 14.3 12.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 126 121 119 118 107 104 92 78 62 63 63 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -53.3 -53.1 -54.0 -54.4 -55.3 -55.1 -54.6 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 -0.4 -0.6 0.1 -0.1 0.4 1.1 0.7 0.0 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 49 50 53 56 53 50 50 49 51 53 49 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 29 29 29 33 34 33 31 28 28 26 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 26 14 14 39 83 97 73 49 44 40 45 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 -20 23 33 38 73 54 10 27 14 56 28 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 21 12 11 4 12 9 17 13 27 13 36 25 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 623 708 802 909 1015 1278 1561 1841 1657 1348 1068 843 707 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.5 29.1 30.0 30.8 33.1 35.7 38.3 41.0 43.7 46.1 48.3 50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 160.1 161.1 162.0 162.5 163.1 163.8 164.1 164.2 163.8 162.8 160.6 157.3 153.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 11 12 13 14 14 14 15 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -6. -9. -14. -18. -23. -29. -34. -38. -42. -45. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -4. -7. -12. -17. -28. -32. -37. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. -0. -3. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -0. 3. 5. 5. 2. -1. -1. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. 0. -9. -21. -30. -44. -61. -72. -82. -92. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 27.8 160.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 09/03/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.26 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.24 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 28.1 to 8.6 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 426.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 53.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.05 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 09/03/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##