* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142015 09/02/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 30 30 32 33 33 31 30 31 35 38 42 45 48 53 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 30 30 32 33 33 31 30 31 35 38 42 45 48 53 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 29 27 25 23 21 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 13 8 5 9 14 13 10 11 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -4 -3 -2 -1 -3 0 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 211 220 208 178 190 180 186 177 225 199 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.2 26.7 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 152 151 151 151 146 141 138 133 128 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -52.0 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 69 64 61 59 54 50 44 43 44 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 15 14 13 11 8 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 18 17 2 -7 6 7 11 12 0 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 76 67 48 34 17 22 9 32 29 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 4 0 -1 1 1 0 0 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 886 834 785 737 691 597 498 432 392 377 374 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.1 17.7 18.3 18.9 20.0 20.9 21.6 22.2 22.8 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.9 115.0 115.1 115.1 115.1 114.9 114.7 114.7 114.9 115.3 115.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 21 17 14 12 9 6 5 3 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -18. -19. -18. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. 1. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.4 114.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142015 FOURTEEN 09/02/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.88 8.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.49 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 28.1 to 8.6 0.61 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.77 -6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.29 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.17 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.24 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 19.7% 17.0% 13.9% 0.0% 18.7% 14.8% 14.3% Logistic: 2.0% 7.8% 4.8% 2.4% 1.2% 1.5% 1.1% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 9.4% 7.3% 5.5% 0.4% 6.7% 5.3% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142015 FOURTEEN 09/02/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##