* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/02/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 87 86 85 84 81 83 83 82 80 80 78 74 74 75 76 77 V (KT) LAND 90 87 86 85 84 81 83 83 82 80 80 78 74 74 75 76 77 V (KT) LGEM 90 87 85 83 81 79 80 79 74 67 60 54 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 5 9 11 9 8 14 17 20 26 24 25 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 3 1 3 3 1 3 8 5 8 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 324 296 267 265 265 258 264 267 258 255 253 256 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.7 26.4 26.4 26.3 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 142 142 142 140 137 134 129 126 126 125 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.5 -50.5 -50.8 -50.9 -50.7 -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 -50.8 -50.8 -50.8 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 8 9 7 8 6 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 51 50 51 51 47 45 44 52 53 56 53 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 32 34 35 35 34 39 39 38 39 39 38 36 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 35 45 64 69 74 95 95 99 86 71 58 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 -13 -15 -6 8 10 -5 32 32 31 32 22 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 7 6 5 4 4 12 19 27 29 30 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1256 1220 1184 1159 1134 1088 1057 1045 1049 1048 1046 1048 1068 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.5 20.3 21.1 22.2 23.3 24.4 25.4 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 143.0 143.3 143.6 143.8 144.0 144.4 144.7 144.9 145.1 145.5 146.1 146.8 147.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 20 22 22 21 17 11 6 3 1 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -8. -13. -18. -22. -25. -27. -29. -30. -31. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 7. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -7. -7. -8. -10. -10. -12. -16. -16. -15. -14. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 17.8 143.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/02/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.21 1.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.13 0.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 28.1 to 8.6 0.26 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 642.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.12 -0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.48 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.73 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.19 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.46 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 13.2% 12.8% 9.9% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 3.0% 1.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 5.4% 4.6% 3.6% 2.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/02/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##