* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/02/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 36 35 33 34 33 31 30 31 31 34 37 40 40 42 V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 36 35 33 34 33 31 30 31 31 34 37 40 40 42 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 35 34 31 30 29 28 28 28 28 30 33 38 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 27 29 29 28 26 20 18 21 18 13 6 6 6 4 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -5 -1 1 -2 1 3 7 6 6 6 5 -3 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 243 251 259 261 278 283 272 275 277 300 344 39 101 141 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.8 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 113 115 117 118 121 126 128 129 133 138 141 141 140 136 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 103 103 104 106 107 109 113 115 116 118 122 124 122 121 116 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 45 44 41 39 36 37 35 42 40 44 45 53 56 59 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 15 14 13 13 12 12 11 10 8 8 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -6 -6 -8 -15 -22 -19 -29 -15 -24 -21 -45 -51 -60 -60 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 5 -5 -15 -10 -5 -13 -13 -7 -8 -31 4 -16 10 -2 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 5 5 0 -1 2 0 2 4 3 5 2 2 0 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1336 1414 1493 1567 1642 1805 1958 2123 2275 2357 2363 2409 2447 2368 2221 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.6 21.1 21.5 21.8 22.2 22.7 23.5 24.5 25.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 29.7 30.5 31.3 32.0 32.8 34.4 35.9 37.5 39.0 40.5 41.7 42.7 43.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 1 1 4 8 10 12 18 20 20 26 25 18 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 774 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -11. -9. -8. -6. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -17. -18. -19. -19. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -6. -7. -9. -10. -9. -9. -6. -3. -0. 0. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.4 29.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/02/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.0 41.0 to 7.4 0.24 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.73 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.35 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.23 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.11 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 366.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.51 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 60.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.36 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 7.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 2.5% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/02/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 38 37 36 35 33 34 33 31 30 31 31 34 37 40 40 42 18HR AGO 40 39 38 37 36 34 35 34 32 31 32 32 35 38 41 41 43 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 34 32 33 32 30 29 30 30 33 36 39 39 41 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 27 28 27 25 24 25 25 28 31 34 34 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT