* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/31/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 84 79 75 71 67 65 67 68 67 65 65 62 56 51 48 47 V (KT) LAND 90 84 79 75 71 67 65 67 68 67 65 65 62 56 51 48 47 V (KT) LGEM 90 85 80 76 73 65 58 55 52 51 50 51 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 24 28 26 25 21 24 20 15 16 24 33 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 4 7 5 4 1 0 -2 0 3 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 235 227 227 227 218 229 214 253 274 243 207 203 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.2 27.0 27.1 26.4 26.2 25.7 24.7 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 142 143 143 140 135 133 135 127 125 120 110 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.5 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 0.3 0.8 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 57 58 59 58 59 62 61 59 59 66 70 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 26 26 27 27 28 28 29 29 30 30 33 37 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 42 46 48 35 36 48 38 42 49 66 88 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 26 38 28 19 29 25 18 5 17 55 110 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 14 15 16 14 9 11 16 12 12 11 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 463 422 400 383 374 372 399 446 542 695 899 1134 1358 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.2 21.8 22.4 22.9 23.9 24.9 26.0 27.1 28.3 29.9 31.9 33.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 150.5 151.2 151.8 152.5 153.2 154.6 156.2 157.9 159.6 161.2 162.4 163.2 164.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 10 9 9 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 17 20 17 12 7 7 8 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -0. -4. -9. -14. -19. -23. -26. -29. -32. -33. -35. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -13. -12. -13. -15. -19. -24. -27. -29. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 9. 8. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -15. -19. -23. -25. -23. -22. -23. -25. -25. -28. -34. -39. -42. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 20.6 150.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/31/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.20 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.31 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 40.2 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 541.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/31/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##