* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/30/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 109 104 104 103 103 105 109 112 115 115 120 121 125 129 133 V (KT) LAND 115 112 109 104 104 103 103 105 109 112 115 115 120 121 125 129 133 V (KT) LGEM 115 113 111 110 109 108 107 108 110 112 112 113 116 124 137 149 155 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 13 14 14 12 12 8 11 12 17 12 14 10 5 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 0 0 -3 -1 4 2 -1 7 1 0 -3 -6 -8 -7 SHEAR DIR 254 254 242 258 259 225 264 211 247 235 252 237 245 231 223 210 214 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 159 160 159 155 151 151 148 146 146 148 151 154 158 156 158 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.2 -49.7 -49.8 -49.7 -49.4 -50.4 -50.5 -50.8 -50.7 -50.3 -50.3 -50.1 -49.6 -49.5 -49.1 -49.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 0.6 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 14 14 13 13 12 12 11 12 11 11 12 13 12 12 700-500 MB RH 52 50 56 53 53 52 48 47 45 45 44 49 48 48 48 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 23 20 24 25 24 24 26 28 31 32 37 39 43 47 52 850 MB ENV VOR 17 12 29 23 11 1 -10 4 8 19 35 52 48 57 85 132 166 200 MB DIV -4 5 13 -7 4 27 8 28 13 14 7 -2 -7 24 10 46 68 700-850 TADV 3 7 3 0 -3 4 5 3 4 4 6 4 1 2 2 1 1 LAND (KM) 1804 1845 1889 1928 1971 2034 2108 2172 2236 2318 2410 2511 2612 2690 2816 2648 2494 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.2 19.8 20.5 21.2 22.8 23.9 24.5 24.9 25.1 25.3 25.3 25.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 177.2 177.8 178.3 178.8 179.3 180.0 180.7 181.3 181.9 182.7 183.6 184.6 185.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 8 5 4 4 4 4 5 4 8 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 39 40 42 43 40 26 24 26 28 30 29 26 25 27 35 36 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -6. -14. -22. -29. -34. -39. -41. -40. -40. -40. -42. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -6. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 14. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. 17. 19. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 11. 16. 17. 19. 21. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -11. -11. -12. -12. -10. -6. -3. 0. 0. 5. 6. 10. 14. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 18.6 177.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/30/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.13 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 28.1 to 8.6 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 815.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.8% 0.9% 3.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/30/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##