* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/30/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 122 123 120 118 116 114 118 120 126 126 125 127 127 129 133 137 V (KT) LAND 120 122 123 120 118 116 114 118 120 126 126 125 127 127 129 133 137 V (KT) LGEM 120 122 121 121 120 119 118 117 118 121 120 117 117 120 127 142 154 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 8 11 10 7 6 4 5 5 12 17 13 13 6 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 1 2 1 2 6 1 3 6 4 5 -1 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 265 256 249 237 248 248 246 264 220 292 251 282 276 254 232 254 228 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.9 28.7 29.1 28.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 158 159 160 158 154 152 152 154 152 150 153 143 158 157 157 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.4 -50.1 -49.7 -49.6 -49.9 -49.3 -50.2 -49.8 -50.2 -49.4 -50.0 -49.7 -49.9 -49.5 -49.5 -48.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 13 14 13 14 13 13 12 12 11 12 11 13 12 13 700-500 MB RH 52 50 56 54 56 55 53 51 49 49 48 50 51 58 53 54 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 27 25 25 29 27 30 31 34 34 35 38 41 43 47 53 850 MB ENV VOR 30 10 21 21 20 5 -3 -4 1 26 46 72 79 53 91 114 130 200 MB DIV 9 -32 -18 4 8 56 39 7 9 27 64 2 12 -15 25 37 65 700-850 TADV -1 3 5 7 4 3 5 4 5 1 4 8 3 2 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1741 1789 1840 1879 1921 1988 2044 2096 2180 2292 2415 2548 2670 2453 2801 2781 2612 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.8 20.3 21.6 22.7 23.6 24.1 24.3 24.5 24.7 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 176.5 177.1 177.7 178.2 178.7 179.5 180.1 180.6 181.4 182.5 183.7 185.0 186.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 5 5 6 6 3 4 12 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 38 39 40 41 43 36 27 25 27 35 35 27 27 23 27 27 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -3. -8. -16. -25. -32. -38. -42. -44. -44. -44. -44. -46. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 15. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16. 18. 20. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. 1. 4. 3. 7. 9. 14. 14. 15. 17. 17. 18. 20. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 0. -2. -4. -6. -2. 0. 6. 6. 5. 7. 7. 9. 13. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 18.3 176.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/30/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.07 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.14 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 28.1 to 8.6 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 807.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.41 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 8.8% 3.2% 4.2% 3.5% 4.3% 6.9% 9.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 5.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/30/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##