* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/29/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 88 96 104 109 119 120 121 117 115 117 119 118 119 120 123 125 V (KT) LAND 80 88 96 104 109 119 120 121 117 115 117 119 118 119 120 123 125 V (KT) LGEM 80 89 97 104 112 124 130 129 124 119 118 118 117 119 124 129 135 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 5 3 5 7 11 7 13 7 9 5 8 7 6 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -4 -6 -1 1 0 0 0 0 0 6 1 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 235 249 245 220 216 231 251 248 270 271 254 208 232 254 255 217 281 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.4 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.6 28.4 28.2 28.8 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 158 161 161 158 155 153 146 142 143 142 136 147 145 151 158 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.3 -50.8 -50.4 -50.5 -50.1 -50.0 -49.7 -50.1 -50.1 -50.2 -49.9 -49.8 -49.4 -49.4 -48.8 -48.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 12 13 12 13 13 13 700-500 MB RH 51 53 53 56 56 56 53 54 51 53 51 53 51 55 54 56 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 20 20 24 25 29 30 32 35 40 41 43 46 48 50 850 MB ENV VOR 13 19 24 23 19 21 3 -1 -15 1 3 39 40 54 58 85 98 200 MB DIV -19 -14 0 16 12 33 15 25 3 -14 3 27 9 46 11 34 31 700-850 TADV -7 -5 0 1 1 3 3 4 7 5 3 3 5 6 6 3 0 LAND (KM) 1492 1553 1616 1677 1740 1852 1908 1952 2004 2048 2102 2185 2258 2261 2454 2576 2739 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.8 19.1 20.1 21.3 22.5 23.5 24.1 24.6 24.9 25.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 173.9 174.6 175.3 176.0 176.7 178.0 178.7 179.2 179.7 180.1 180.6 181.4 182.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 4 4 4 4 2 6 7 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 51 46 45 46 46 43 39 27 17 15 18 21 19 27 29 32 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 54.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 15. 15. 15. 16. 16. 18. 20. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 15. 18. 20. 25. 29. 28. 27. 27. 27. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 8. 2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 16. 24. 29. 39. 40. 41. 37. 35. 37. 39. 38. 39. 40. 43. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.9 173.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/29/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.46 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.17 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 28.1 to 8.6 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 509.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 48.1% 49.0% 52.2% 49.1% 65.2% 60.9% 58.4% 3.5% Bayesian: 8.7% 58.6% 13.1% 10.3% 20.7% 7.8% 1.2% 0.5% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/29/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##