* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL052015 08/29/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 25 25 31 34 43 44 47 47 46 46 45 42 40 39 V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 25 25 31 34 43 44 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 27 25 24 24 23 24 25 26 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 25 22 15 14 18 15 17 18 28 33 35 37 37 31 29 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -5 -2 0 -4 -3 -3 -5 -2 -7 -2 -8 -7 -9 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 305 312 310 296 265 226 242 216 223 219 227 225 240 242 267 268 306 SST (C) 29.5 29.8 31.2 30.6 30.2 31.0 30.8 30.6 30.8 30.9 30.6 30.0 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 168 173 173 172 171 170 169 169 169 169 166 162 163 163 165 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 161 163 173 173 161 168 158 152 155 155 147 133 128 128 128 129 128 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -53.0 -52.6 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.9 -54.2 -54.5 -54.1 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 8 9 6 9 5 9 4 9 4 700-500 MB RH 53 56 62 65 63 58 58 60 58 61 61 62 60 55 53 51 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 8 7 7 5 6 5 6 6 4 4 4 3 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR -50 -53 -53 -54 -51 -23 -48 -26 -49 -33 -60 -46 -43 -35 -28 -11 -27 200 MB DIV 28 43 36 33 30 27 26 48 12 40 15 20 16 9 -13 4 -6 700-850 TADV -6 -15 -17 -8 -2 5 0 3 4 1 3 0 -3 2 -3 0 -1 LAND (KM) 32 61 84 123 39 37 35 71 43 -60 -167 -245 -300 -311 -319 -332 -341 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 22.2 23.0 23.9 24.8 26.3 27.4 28.3 29.4 30.6 31.6 32.3 32.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.6 77.1 78.5 79.6 80.8 82.2 83.0 83.5 83.8 84.0 84.2 84.2 84.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 14 14 12 8 6 5 6 6 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 68 49 87 97 55 79 69 56 73 7 6 5 4 5 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 768 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 7. 14. 19. 24. 28. 33. 37. 40. 41. 42. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -5. -10. -14. -19. -25. -29. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -5. -5. -8. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -5. 1. 4. 13. 14. 17. 17. 16. 16. 15. 12. 10. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.3 75.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052015 ERIKA 08/29/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 41.0 to 7.4 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 71.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.0 30.0 to 128.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.6 to -2.7 999.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.76 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1.5% 3.4% 5.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052015 ERIKA 08/29/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052015 ERIKA 08/29/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 28 26 25 25 31 34 43 44 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 27 26 26 32 35 44 45 37 31 29 28 28 28 28 28 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 31 34 43 44 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 26 29 38 39 31 25 23 22 22 22 22 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT