* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL052015 08/29/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 31 31 32 38 44 47 55 58 60 60 57 53 49 49 V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 29 28 33 38 44 47 56 58 51 37 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 30 29 28 31 31 33 37 41 46 42 33 29 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 27 25 23 19 12 16 13 17 16 21 24 29 30 36 32 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -5 -2 -1 -1 -5 0 -3 1 0 2 2 -2 2 -4 SHEAR DIR 281 301 306 307 298 248 238 223 234 206 218 200 213 207 215 205 203 SST (C) 29.9 30.6 31.2 31.4 31.0 30.7 30.8 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.2 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 171 174 174 173 173 171 170 169 169 170 169 169 164 161 161 161 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 171 174 174 173 173 168 162 157 154 154 150 142 132 128 128 128 128 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 9 7 8 7 9 7 700-500 MB RH 53 53 57 62 63 61 60 62 61 66 64 71 67 69 66 68 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 10 10 10 10 7 7 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -21 -22 -30 -46 -37 -51 -36 -55 -29 -50 -33 -52 -18 -12 -4 -9 200 MB DIV 5 33 43 31 19 19 30 28 23 47 51 41 39 17 19 17 9 700-850 TADV 4 -3 -12 -18 -12 -2 -2 3 1 6 7 6 6 0 5 0 7 LAND (KM) 31 14 0 2 -47 78 178 175 175 173 104 -27 -83 -92 -92 -92 -92 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.8 20.7 21.6 22.4 23.9 25.0 25.8 26.7 27.7 28.8 30.0 30.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.4 75.9 77.4 78.8 80.1 82.0 83.1 83.6 84.2 84.6 84.9 84.9 84.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 16 15 13 9 6 5 5 6 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 67 73 68 72 73 50 45 42 39 45 41 50 23 19 19 19 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 7. 13. 18. 22. 26. 31. 35. 39. 39. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -5. -5. -6. -7. -11. -11. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. 3. 9. 12. 20. 23. 25. 25. 22. 18. 14. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.8 74.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052015 ERIKA 08/29/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.6 41.0 to 7.4 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 70.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.8 30.0 to 128.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.6 to -2.7 999.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 186.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.71 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1.8% 6.4% 11.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052015 ERIKA 08/29/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052015 ERIKA 08/29/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 32 29 28 33 38 44 47 56 58 51 37 30 28 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 32 29 28 33 38 44 47 56 58 51 37 30 28 27 27 12HR AGO 35 32 31 28 27 32 37 43 46 55 57 50 36 29 27 26 26 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 29 34 40 43 52 54 47 33 26 24 23 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT