* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/24/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 40 43 52 62 69 73 76 78 81 80 85 88 89 94 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 40 43 52 62 69 73 76 78 81 80 85 88 89 94 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 35 39 45 52 60 67 71 73 77 80 85 88 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 13 15 13 10 2 4 10 13 9 14 17 7 10 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -5 -7 -5 -6 -5 -3 -3 -1 2 1 0 0 3 5 4 SHEAR DIR 360 6 13 15 20 31 44 291 258 257 240 266 290 315 279 305 281 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.2 28.3 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 152 150 149 147 148 149 149 146 146 146 149 151 144 145 149 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -51.5 -51.2 -51.0 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 66 68 66 65 63 63 61 61 61 64 65 65 67 63 65 69 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 14 16 19 20 22 23 25 28 30 34 850 MB ENV VOR 52 42 26 17 9 -10 -32 -41 -35 -18 -12 8 25 28 38 41 53 200 MB DIV 55 54 45 40 40 45 26 5 16 23 30 2 13 3 1 -24 27 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 0 0 3 2 LAND (KM) 1020 1024 1032 1022 1014 970 908 856 799 756 746 774 804 1240 1354 1436 1538 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.4 17.2 17.9 18.6 19.3 19.8 20.2 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 165.8 166.4 166.9 167.2 167.4 167.5 167.4 167.3 167.1 167.0 167.1 167.5 167.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 3 2 3 11 12 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 48 43 39 38 39 44 50 49 44 37 32 29 24 45 26 24 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 398 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 32. 34. 35. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 13. 22. 32. 39. 43. 46. 48. 51. 50. 55. 58. 59. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.3 165.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/24/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.87 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.44 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 28.1 to 8.6 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 6.9% 22.4% 10.6% 5.4% 7.9% 8.8% 23.6% 26.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 12.9% 3.0% 0.8% 1.0% 4.5% 10.1% 4.6% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/24/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##