* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOKE CP042015 08/23/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 45 51 61 70 74 67 53 52 50 45 41 36 35 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 45 51 61 70 74 67 53 52 50 45 41 36 35 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 39 40 44 47 50 51 46 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 10 11 16 16 23 21 11 22 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 9 10 4 -4 -6 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 299 283 275 273 279 236 211 230 330 303 221 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.5 28.4 28.0 28.1 26.4 24.7 22.4 17.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 154 150 149 145 146 129 113 89 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -52.6 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 -0.4 0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 8 8 7 7 6 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 60 59 59 61 64 66 55 49 48 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 11 13 15 17 16 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -26 -30 -33 -11 61 88 91 79 83 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 19 29 19 47 52 69 32 30 40 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 8 9 13 21 9 26 18 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2001 1964 1931 1874 1822 1729 1769 1937 2255 2240 1791 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.3 22.2 23.0 23.9 24.8 26.9 29.2 31.8 34.7 37.9 41.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 179.6 179.3 179.0 178.4 177.8 176.4 175.9 176.3 178.1 181.2 184.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 11 12 12 12 15 18 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 31 25 20 21 10 10 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 787 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 18. 19. 18. 18. 18. 17. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -5. -11. -15. -16. -17. -19. -21. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 10. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 16. 26. 35. 39. 32. 18. 17. 15. 10. 6. 1. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.3 179.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP042015 LOKE 08/23/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.84 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.30 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 28.1 to 8.6 0.05 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 2.7% 4.8% 2.8% 1.5% 0.3% 2.0% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 LOKE 08/23/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##