* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/20/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 53 55 61 64 66 67 66 67 67 66 66 64 66 67 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 53 55 61 64 66 67 66 67 67 66 66 64 54 55 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 50 53 59 64 66 65 64 63 61 60 59 57 49 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 3 1 1 2 6 8 13 10 14 12 17 16 22 19 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -3 -4 -3 -2 0 -2 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -2 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 9 346 351 78 301 142 244 241 246 216 229 242 228 247 263 287 290 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.2 27.2 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.6 29.1 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 123 122 122 123 127 127 133 137 142 143 148 149 146 155 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 123 118 117 117 117 122 122 128 133 137 139 143 145 142 151 156 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 700-500 MB RH 58 54 54 54 54 52 49 44 41 40 39 38 40 42 45 45 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 14 13 14 13 12 11 10 10 9 8 6 4 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 9 3 2 9 8 0 9 0 8 3 4 0 6 26 30 29 37 200 MB DIV 48 -8 -27 -28 -13 -1 0 21 -10 -9 -29 -23 -30 0 -4 -10 0 700-850 TADV -8 -5 -4 -2 -1 0 4 2 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -3 0 1 7 LAND (KM) 1260 1227 1200 1176 1150 1110 1080 1067 902 730 631 493 238 86 64 -8 23 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.9 14.5 15.1 15.5 15.7 16.1 16.6 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.2 44.0 44.8 45.5 46.3 47.9 49.8 52.0 54.2 56.5 58.9 61.4 63.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 9 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 10 11 15 18 11 12 20 29 42 31 35 59 46 39 72 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 16. 18. 19. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -14. -15. -17. -20. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 10. 16. 19. 21. 22. 21. 22. 22. 21. 21. 19. 21. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.1 43.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/20/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 41.0 to 7.4 0.94 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.71 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.46 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.39 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.11 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 261.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.63 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.7 95.0 to 0.0 0.77 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 17.9% 12.0% 10.0% 8.8% 16.0% 17.9% 24.0% Logistic: 6.2% 29.7% 27.0% 17.9% 8.0% 18.7% 10.5% 6.8% Bayesian: 0.7% 6.3% 3.9% 0.4% 0.2% 2.6% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 18.0% 14.3% 9.4% 5.7% 12.4% 9.7% 10.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/20/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/20/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 50 53 55 61 64 66 67 66 67 67 66 66 64 54 55 18HR AGO 45 44 47 50 52 58 61 63 64 63 64 64 63 63 61 51 52 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 46 52 55 57 58 57 58 58 57 57 55 45 46 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 43 46 48 49 48 49 49 48 48 46 36 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT