* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/19/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 52 53 58 63 68 74 75 79 82 81 82 83 81 84 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 52 53 58 63 68 74 75 79 82 81 82 83 81 74 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 48 50 54 61 68 74 76 78 79 79 78 78 77 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 5 6 9 3 1 3 4 6 5 10 11 18 13 17 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 -1 -2 -3 -2 -3 -3 1 1 3 0 -3 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 73 76 71 73 94 122 93 270 245 225 157 195 213 220 230 226 240 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.5 27.6 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 130 128 127 126 126 125 127 130 132 137 141 145 146 147 147 144 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 125 123 122 122 120 122 126 128 133 137 141 140 141 141 137 144 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 14 700-500 MB RH 65 65 63 58 57 56 52 46 42 40 39 38 40 42 43 43 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 16 17 16 16 16 16 16 15 16 17 15 16 16 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR 15 20 8 5 8 19 23 20 17 28 22 18 20 26 33 32 38 200 MB DIV 75 89 66 14 -13 -14 -12 0 23 11 23 0 -4 5 24 7 21 700-850 TADV -11 -10 -7 -6 -4 -2 -1 2 1 0 0 0 3 2 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1345 1288 1236 1194 1158 1102 1056 1023 1013 835 697 637 378 169 81 94 0 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.3 12.9 13.6 14.2 14.8 15.4 16.0 16.5 16.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.5 42.3 43.2 44.0 44.9 46.5 48.4 50.4 52.6 54.9 57.4 60.0 62.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 11 13 13 11 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 10 11 12 18 17 13 17 25 32 42 32 39 61 39 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 16. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 13. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -6. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. -10. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 8. 13. 18. 23. 29. 30. 34. 37. 36. 37. 38. 36. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.4 41.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/19/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 41.0 to 7.4 0.72 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.75 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.50 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.46 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.37 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 199.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.70 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 19.2% 12.0% 9.4% 8.7% 12.4% 15.2% 28.6% Logistic: 4.7% 26.5% 19.9% 14.5% 7.1% 13.3% 6.6% 4.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 3.6% 0.1% Consensus: 3.9% 15.8% 11.0% 8.0% 5.3% 8.8% 8.5% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/19/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/19/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 48 52 53 58 63 68 74 75 79 82 81 82 83 81 74 18HR AGO 45 44 46 50 51 56 61 66 72 73 77 80 79 80 81 79 72 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 46 51 56 61 67 68 72 75 74 75 76 74 67 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 41 46 51 57 58 62 65 64 65 66 64 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT