* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/03/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 67 65 63 59 55 52 50 45 40 37 35 34 33 33 32 V (KT) LAND 75 71 67 65 63 59 55 52 50 42 42 39 37 36 35 35 34 V (KT) LGEM 75 70 65 61 58 53 48 45 43 36 37 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 17 18 18 13 19 15 23 24 30 36 43 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 5 5 4 2 4 1 1 8 1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 286 285 294 294 279 285 267 260 252 250 254 265 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.1 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.2 27.4 28.1 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 137 136 137 134 138 138 138 136 139 146 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 -52.7 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 69 69 67 67 63 61 60 57 56 53 52 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 17 19 18 17 16 14 14 12 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 6 11 10 20 34 40 42 40 23 15 0 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 11 4 3 21 12 28 24 39 38 3 -6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 5 9 8 4 3 4 2 4 1 0 -5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1178 1077 975 879 784 587 391 193 34 -2 43 138 399 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.6 18.3 19.1 19.9 20.9 21.9 23.0 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 144.6 145.5 146.3 147.1 147.9 149.6 151.3 153.0 154.7 156.4 158.5 160.9 163.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 11 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 11 9 8 11 17 18 20 17 14 13 24 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -9. -13. -18. -23. -24. -25. -26. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. -15. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -10. -12. -16. -20. -23. -25. -30. -35. -38. -40. -41. -42. -42. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.3 144.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/03/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.32 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.23 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.72 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 4.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/03/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##