* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/02/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 87 84 81 74 66 62 59 56 53 50 46 46 46 46 45 V (KT) LAND 90 89 87 84 81 74 66 62 59 56 47 50 46 46 46 46 45 V (KT) LGEM 90 88 84 79 75 66 60 56 52 49 42 44 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 9 10 13 13 12 18 8 18 19 29 31 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 12 10 9 8 5 0 8 3 5 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 306 313 299 295 294 285 298 273 258 248 256 256 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 143 141 139 136 136 137 138 138 137 138 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 -51.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 68 68 69 69 67 64 61 60 57 52 50 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 21 20 20 20 18 17 17 15 14 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 3 6 16 18 33 36 44 40 40 16 6 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 30 19 16 -1 12 17 21 28 42 24 17 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 8 9 8 9 8 5 6 5 8 9 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1391 1291 1192 1093 994 802 610 409 210 43 0 28 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.5 17.3 18.1 18.9 19.9 20.8 21.8 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 142.9 143.8 144.6 145.5 146.3 147.9 149.5 151.2 152.9 154.6 156.5 158.4 160.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 17 16 12 10 11 18 19 20 18 14 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -8. -13. -17. -21. -23. -24. -25. -26. -26. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -11. -12. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -13. -14. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -9. -16. -24. -28. -31. -34. -37. -40. -44. -44. -44. -44. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 14.3 142.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/02/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.21 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.7 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 283.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.92 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.4% 12.7% 3.7% 2.8% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 8.8% 1.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/02/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##