* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 07/31/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 87 91 91 90 85 82 77 71 66 63 62 62 59 59 55 53 V (KT) LAND 80 87 91 91 90 85 82 77 71 66 63 62 62 59 58 54 52 V (KT) LGEM 80 88 91 91 89 81 73 65 61 57 54 53 54 53 50 47 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 12 14 16 10 7 4 9 12 18 19 19 27 32 34 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 7 4 4 8 9 11 5 0 -2 0 3 1 2 2 2 SHEAR DIR 294 293 272 265 276 286 318 304 277 278 287 284 267 269 265 258 261 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.7 28.2 27.6 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.7 28.3 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 154 153 148 141 143 138 136 136 136 137 138 141 148 147 148 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 63 64 65 67 68 72 74 72 70 67 67 65 61 57 54 51 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 23 22 22 22 23 22 22 20 19 20 20 19 19 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -12 -14 -10 -12 3 10 25 32 33 40 41 48 48 36 23 23 200 MB DIV 65 75 73 71 42 52 49 39 23 18 29 45 21 0 -8 16 14 700-850 TADV 5 9 14 12 15 13 12 10 11 9 5 6 8 10 1 2 0 LAND (KM) 2489 2416 2261 2105 1950 1680 1452 1253 1079 930 761 573 356 120 35 182 184 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.5 12.8 13.2 13.5 14.2 14.9 15.6 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.0 133.4 134.8 136.2 137.6 140.0 142.0 143.7 145.2 146.5 148.0 149.7 151.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 13 11 10 8 7 7 8 9 11 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 38 37 29 32 26 8 13 16 11 9 13 18 17 22 26 24 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 16 CX,CY: -13/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. 0. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -4. -3. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 11. 11. 10. 5. 2. -3. -9. -14. -17. -18. -18. -21. -21. -25. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 12.1 132.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 07/31/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.42 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.75 7.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.54 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 28.1 to 8.6 0.05 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 319.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.52 -4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.64 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.79 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.32 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.37 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 44.5% 30.9% 24.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 23.1% 26.9% 16.8% 13.0% 2.9% 7.7% 3.6% 1.1% Bayesian: 33.5% 51.7% 41.2% 27.0% 4.3% 4.0% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 33.7% 36.5% 27.3% 13.3% 2.4% 10.6% 1.4% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 07/31/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##