* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/17/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 85 79 74 70 59 46 36 27 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 85 79 74 70 59 46 36 27 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 84 78 72 67 56 45 37 30 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 9 4 14 9 17 18 26 24 25 26 24 28 30 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 1 3 0 3 1 5 6 2 2 0 -2 -5 -6 -7 SHEAR DIR 134 111 58 59 29 4 331 310 277 262 242 231 220 221 221 236 234 SST (C) 26.2 26.2 26.0 25.6 25.2 24.2 22.9 22.9 22.8 22.4 21.7 21.5 21.7 22.1 22.5 22.8 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 123 118 114 104 91 91 90 85 76 72 76 81 85 88 89 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.9 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 64 62 62 59 56 55 50 49 45 44 39 34 28 23 20 19 17 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 31 30 30 30 27 23 21 19 16 15 13 10 7 5 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 72 67 67 69 75 76 67 40 16 1 7 29 28 26 20 19 12 200 MB DIV 36 41 18 5 9 -5 20 2 5 -11 8 1 -9 -1 -9 -8 -20 700-850 TADV 4 0 -3 -4 -2 -5 0 -1 8 6 1 -7 -18 -14 -11 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 386 432 454 473 504 569 543 539 565 584 522 516 574 685 801 891 965 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.9 21.2 21.5 21.7 22.7 24.3 26.1 27.9 29.4 30.4 30.6 30.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.8 113.6 114.4 115.2 115.9 117.4 118.8 120.1 121.2 122.2 122.8 123.1 123.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 8 9 11 10 10 7 4 1 4 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -20. -28. -34. -40. -47. -53. -58. -62. -66. -70. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -9. -14. -20. -24. -25. -27. -27. -28. -27. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -16. -20. -31. -44. -54. -63. -73. -80. -88. -96.-104.-111.-119.-125. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 20.6 112.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/17/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.01 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.30 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 28.1 to 8.6 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 426.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/17/15 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##