* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP062015 07/16/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 25 23 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 25 23 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 25 23 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 8 13 13 17 17 17 15 12 13 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 0 0 4 2 3 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 184 188 189 191 201 198 209 214 221 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.9 24.8 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.7 24.8 25.0 25.1 25.1 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 108 106 106 106 106 106 109 109 108 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 46 43 41 39 36 35 31 28 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 15 14 12 11 9 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 60 56 52 52 52 50 48 38 20 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 13 1 3 4 -25 -15 -16 -2 -16 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 3 2 1 -3 -3 -1 -2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1996 1949 1902 1860 1818 1766 1756 1757 1768 1768 1768 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.3 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.4 20.1 19.8 19.6 19.6 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.7 136.2 136.6 137.0 137.4 137.9 138.0 138.0 137.9 137.9 137.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 10. 8. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. -17. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -9. -13. -20. -27. -32. -35. -37. -39. -39. -41. -42. -42. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.1 135.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/16/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.45 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.22 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 28.1 to 8.6 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 231.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/16/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##